TMS 2023 BACK TO BUSINESS AT TMS2023

With nearly 4,500 attendees gathered in San Diego CA, the TMS 2023 Annual Meeting & Exhibition (TMS2023) was the fourth best-attended meeting in TMS history, marking a return to business as usual (more or less) after two decidedly unusual years for the Society's biggest event. By comparison, approximately 2,600 individuals came together in person for TMS2022 in Anaheim CA. One year earlier, TMS2021--held as a fully virtual conference--attracted 2,967 attendees from around the world. This year's event, held Mar 19-23 in one of TMS's most popular meeting locations, brought the conference back closer to its pre-COVID participation numbers. The last time TMS met in San Diego was in 2020 (shortly before widespread pandemic shutdowns began) when more than 4,600 individuals came together for the largest meeting in the Society's history.

The Elephant (or Donkey) in the Room

With the United States presidential election merely days away (set to take place on 3 Nov. 2020), the world's gaze has shifted to the race for the White House and whether there will be a Republican or Democrat taking office. [...]if this circumstance were to change, there would be potential consequences for European pharma companies that have a presence in or deal with the US. If the Democrats win the presidency and have control over Congress, it is expected that foreign and generic-drug manufacturers would benefit as a result of lower market entrance barriers.

The future is relational: management development for today and tomorrow

PurposeThe authors of this study aim to test a possible turn toward relational, as opposed to agentic, management development program (MDP) content.Design/methodology/approachThe authors performed a content analysis of the literature and qualitative interviews of management coaches/consultants from South Africa and the USA.FindingsIn both studies, the authors found more relational than agentic content comprising MDP content. Interviews revealed a predominance of relational strategies and that agentic and relational skills are often interwoven in development efforts.Practical implicationsThis work may guide management coaches and consultants to offer clients management development (MD) with a greater focus on relational skills.Originality/valueFuture studies should build on our findings to explore whether leadership may now require more relational as opposed to agentic skills.

Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

In recent years, the global economy has witnessed several uncertainty-inducing events. However, empirical evidence in Africa on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic activities remains scanty. Besides, the moderating effect of governance institutions on the uncertainty-economic performance relationship in Africa and the likelihood of regional differences in the response of economic activities to EPU on the continent are yet to be investigated. To address these gaps, we applied system GMM and quantile regressions on a panel of forty-seven African countries from 2010 to 2019. We find that while global EPU and EPUs from China, USA and Canada exert considerable influence on economic performance in Africa, the effects of domestic EPU and EPUs from Europe, UK, Japan, and Russia were negligible, suggesting that African economies are resilient to these sources of uncertainty shocks. We also find that governance institutions in Africa are not significantly moderating the uncertainty-economic performance relationship. However, our results highlighted regional differences in the response of economic activities to uncertainty, such that when compared to East and West Africa, economic performance in Central, North and Southern Africa is generally more resilient to global EPU and EPUs from China, USA, Europe and UK. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.

Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach

PurposeThis study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.FindingsThe hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors' services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.Originality/valueThe study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.

Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election

Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger.

Truth Is a Human Right: Türkiye's Stance on the Fight against Disinformation

We are experiencing the rise of unprecedented opportunities as a result of the digital revolution, but regrettably this has also been accompanied by a number of novel threats. One of the most visible manifestations of these threats is the rapid spread of misinformation and disinformation. The implications of this threat extend from the individual to the national and international levels, where misinformation and disinformation bring the risk of hybrid warfare and power competition closer to home. Needless to say, the breadth of these implications makes dealing with digital misinformation even more difficult. This commentary focuses on several global events where misinformation and disinformation were used as a tactical tool, including the 2016 U.S. elections, Brexit, and COVID-19. Then, we discuss the situation involving Türkiye, one of the nations that serves as both a target and a focal point of regional disinformation campaigns. The commentary then shifts to some of the Communication Directorate's most significant initiatives, such as the creation of the Earthquake Disinformation Bulletins, the Law on the Fight Against Disinformation, and the Center for Fight Against Disinformation. Finally, above all, this commentary aims to raise awareness of the dangers of online misinformation and urges international cooperation to ensure that the truth always prevails.

Central Bank Independence: Where Do We Stand?

Central bank independence (CBI) has long been considered a key aspect of effective monetary policy, as it allows central banks to make decisions free from political interference. However, the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflict in Ukraine have threatened CBI. This article aims to examine the impact of these events on CBI in OECD member countries, both on a de jure and de facto level, using a variety of indicators. The results suggest that CBI has largely remained unchanged in most countries, but there is disturbing evidence of political interference in CBI in the Republic of Türkiye.

Financial Risk Management of the Russian Economy during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The research objects are the tax and budgetary policies of the Russian Federation. In this research, financial (budgetary) risks are understood as a decrease in the balance of the state (national) budget resulting from a reduction in revenues or an increase in expenditures. This research considers production in the main sectors of the economy as a key factor of financial risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to analyze the main directions of the budgetary and tax policy of the Russian Federation that aimed at supporting the economy and the population during the spread of COVID-19, which is especially relevant in connection with the expected recession in a number of sectors of the economy and a decrease in the level of employment and, accordingly, the well-being of citizens. In these conditions, it is necessary to adjust the budgetary and tax policy to preserve the state's social obligations and expand social and economic support for businesses and citizens to smooth out the negative consequences of the impact of restrictive measures. The authors applied systemic and institutional approaches and statistical methods. The main results of the research reflect the need to (1) implement support measures (tax and budgetary incentives) for small and medium-sized enterprises, on which the crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic has had the most destructive impact, and (2) to expand the volume of budgetary financing of social programs for financial risk management of the Russian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compositionally, the article consists of the following sections: the introduction, which provides an overview of the publication activity in the field of financing measures to overcome the spread of COVID-19 and substantiates the relevance and purpose of the study;the literature review, which lists modern authors whose works were aimed at studying similar issues as well as the methodological apparatus used by them, which are suitable for adaptation;the section ‘materials and methods', which provides more adaptive methods of other people's research and the authors selected in accordance with them are listed;the results section, in which the authors present the main array of statistical data, which is then discussed. At the end of the article, the authors draw conclusions about the applied fiscal policy tools that can be used effectively in the new economic reality.

Reactions of Thailand's Stock Market to the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most important events in the world, to which the stock markets of other countries react. The 2020 U.S. presidential election was unique due to delayed vote counts, the incumbent president's false election-fraud claims, and the violent riots at the U.S. Capitol Building. In this study, the reactions of Thailand's stock market are examined using the event-conditioning method for event-study analyses. The sample period ranges from August 6, 2019, to January 28, 2021. The period overlaps the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and Thailand's youth protest, thus constituting parameter-instability and confounding-event problems. This study relies on the international capital asset pricing model to mitigate the parameter-instability problem, as it constructs event-dummy control variables to resolve the confounding-event problem. The data comprises daily log returns of Morgan Stanley Global Investable Market Indices portfolios for Thailand and the world, in excess of the 1-month U.S. treasury bill rate. The reactions are found to be significant for the election, the final election results, and the presidential inauguration;they are non-significant for the Capitol riots and the incumbent president's false claims. For the same events, there is dissimilarity between the reactions of the Thai and U.S. markets.

Presidential Policies' Effects on Oil and Gas Price and Productions Within the United States from 1977-2021

Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the contentious U.S. 2020 presidential election featured candidates with quite different stances on regulating the oil and gas industry, leaving many to question the longevity of fossil fuel use. However, little research explores the relationship between presidential policies and the oil market. In this paper, extensive research into presidential energy policies and their effects on domestic oil prices and production dating back to 1977 helps us identify whether we can predict the industry's future under Joe Biden's administration. The paper's results suggest the domestic oil industry is more dependent on external foreign events - with presidential policies offering almost negligible effects on prices and production.

The Office of Legal Counsel's Client is the President: Why the Model Rules Demand a Secretive Agency Identify its Boss

This Note argues that the Model Rules of Professional Conduct require the Office of Legal Counsel to identify President Biden as its client. Had the agency done so when Biden first took office, it could have immediately implemented Biden's policy preference: keeping former prisoners home during the coronavirus pandemic.

JOM TALKS WITH 2022 TMS PRESIDENT JUD READY

An interview with TMS President Jud Ready is presented. Among other things, Ready talks about the future of TMS and shares his greatest contribution as president.

Open for Economic Activities during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Factors Related to State Reopening Policies in a Federal Policy Vacuum

What factors influence state governors to issue an executive order to reopen economic activities more or less quickly when removing the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions? Without comprehensive federal guidelines, state governors were faced with an administrative dilemma in devising mitigation policies that promoted safe public health measures while encouraging more business activity. Following the federal directive to reopen in April 2020, governors in all 50 states signed executive orders, but some waited longer than others. We argue that variation in the timing of the enactment of initial executive orders is influenced by political factors, financial resources factors, interstate factors, and problem severity of the public health incidence. Using an event history analysis, our Cox proportional hazard regression model suggests that states with unified Republican governments, more state funding obtained from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, and participation in regional collaboration resumed activities earlier compared to states with more neighbors that issued reopening executive orders and states with more per capita income. Results indicate that, in crisis situations, unified political partisanship, the receipt of federal funding, and coordination with other states facilitate rapid policy adoption.

The Etymology of Despair in the Americas

Halfway into White Noise, Don DeLillo's novel from 1985, Jack Gladney packs his family in the car and leaves town running from a black chemical cloud. The "airborne toxic event” had triggered an emergency evacuation plan: floodlights from helicopters, sirens, unmarked cars from obscure agencies, clogged roads, makeshift shelters at a Boy Scout camp where the Red Cross would dispense juice and coffee. People are confused, they seek information wherever they can, "[s]mall crowds collected around certain men.” Among generalized bewilderment, Gladney observes a few individuals moving faster and more assertively than the rest, then getting into a Land Rover. In the chaotic scene of crisis, their confidence gets his attention. "Their bumper stickers read GUN CONTROL IS MIND CONTROL” Gladney reads. And his mind wanders: "In situations like this, you want to stick close to people in right-wing fringe groups. They've practiced staying alive.”

THE FEDERAL IT CRISIS: ADVOCATING FOR DIGITAL GOVERNANCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ROBUST FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CYBER WORKFORCE

The COVID-19 pandemic has radically altered the federal government, demonstrating the need for increased attention and resources in combating cybersecurity threats and providing a modern digital government experience to constituents. A severe cyber skills gap within the federal government, coupled with an increasingly aging federal workforce, has left some federal agencies struggling to modernize. This crisis also presents unique opportunities. As the push for a technologically modern federal government grows along with recognition of the importance of federal cybersecurity, a number of possibilities for the modern federal agency have opened up and are on the path to becoming certainties. To take advantage of the opportunities presented by these changes and to best position their respective agencies going forward, Chief Information Officers (CIOs) and agency executives should prioritize solutions to attract, train, and retain a technologically savvy workforce. This requires carving out or seeking funding for different information technology (IT) pay scales to compete with private practice, rebranding the federal government to attract young talent, and centering customer experience in the design and development of new programs, websites, and digital services that serve as the bedrock of IT modernization.

Independence, trust, and loyalty. The county governor's coordination of public and voluntary resources in crises in Norway

Collaboration and communication are crucial factors in handling crises, whether the crisis is a serious landslide requiring emergency response for several days or a pandemic lasting for months. This article describes and analyses the governmental relationship with the local communities in critical situations with the COVID‐19 pandemic as a case. In the Norwegian administrative organisation, the county governors have a defined role in their emergency responsibilities, including being chairpersons of the County Emergency Council (CEC). The Norwegian emergency system is organised with samvirke (translated to English as coordinated cooperation) as a core constituency. In this system, voluntary organisations have a formalised role in taking an active part in crisis handling. The inclusion of voluntary organisations in the CEC, as seen by the county governors, is used as a case study. The challenges of collaboration can be analysed using the terms independence, trust, and loyalty. Data are collected from governing documents and interviews with the county governors. The main factor in successful coordination is the governors' ability to support the municipalities and the local communities. They must balance between wants of independence and state control. The art of this balancing act is the topic of this article.

Risk governance during the COVID‐19 pandemic: A quantitative content analysis of governors' narratives on twitter

The current study addresses the communication aspect of risk governance during the COVID‐19 pandemic by examining whether governors' tweets differ by political party, gender and crisis phase. Drawing on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model and framing literature, we examined the salience of five CERC's communication objectives, namely acknowledge crisis with empathy, promote protective actions, describe preparedness/response efforts, address rumours and misunderstanding and segment audience. Using a deductive and inductive approach, we analysed 7000 Twitter messages sent by the 50 US state governors during the period of 13 March 2020 to 17 August 2020. Our findings suggest that governors' tweets aligned with CERC's communication objectives to a varying degree. We found main and interaction effects of political party, gender and crisis phase on governors' communication objectives. New emergent communication objectives included attention to mental health, call for social influencers and promoting hope. Implications are discussed.

IN RE COVID-RELATED RESTRICTIONS ON RELIGIOUS SERVICES Consol. C.A. No. 2021-1036-JTL

For starters, he claims that this court lacks subject matter jurisdiction over the plaintiffs' claims. The Governor argues that it is not reasonably conceivable that the plaintiffs face a threat of imminent irreparable harm given that he lifted the Challenged Restrictions more than two years ago, has no intention of re- imposing them, and has entered into a settlement agreement that resolved a federal lawsuit brought by another religious leader in which he agreed to limitations on his ability to impose restrictions on houses of worship. The Delaware cases that impose that requirement have ported it over from the tests that a plaintiff must meet when seeking interim forms of injunctive relief, such as a temporary restraining order or a preliminary injunction. [...]when a plaintiff seeks to ground equitable jurisdiction on the potential need for a permanent injunction, the pled facts must support a reasonable apprehension that the defendant will act in a manner that will necessitate the injunction's issuance.

Canadian Committee on Labour History Annual General Meeting 16 June 2020 Convened virtually from various locations across Turtle Island

BUSINESS ARISING FROM THE MINUTES OF THE 2019 AGM The President provided an update on several items arising from the minutes of the previous years Annual General Meeting, including progress toward making the cclh website bilingual and the delay in launching the Small Grants pilot project. The ad hoc committee had reported with the following recommendations, which were adopted by the cclh Executive: (1) to create a standing committee on finance, consisting of the Treasurer, President, and Co-Editors of Labour /Le Travail, to meet at least once per year and reporting to the cclh Executive;(2) to establish the following three accounts: (i) Publications Reserve Fund, at a level equivalent to five years expenditures;(ii) Special Projects Reserve Fund, at a level equivalent to 5 years expenditures;and (iii) Ongoing Operating Account, for ordinary operating expenditures;and (3) that the cclh Exec revisit the financial direction and planning for the cclh every three years (in addition to annual financial planning and reporting processes). The Treasurer reported on the annual financial statements of the cclh, indicating that the cclh was in a good financial position, with increased revenues from subscriptions and grants in 2019-2020. Kathy Killoh indicated that the cclh could currently afford to continue with the print edition, while noting challenges with distribution of the Spring 2020 issue given Covid-19 work-from-home measures at Athabasca University Press, as well as delays with the printer.